Four strategies.
You choose.
Every strategy was validated across 71 research rounds, 64 portfolios, and 12 walk-forward time windows. Including the COVID crash, the inflation crisis, and Trump tariffs.
Maximum protection
Defensive reacts earliest and strongest. When signals switch to Cautious, the position is fully reduced. Fast Exit detects extreme market stress immediately.
Structural cost: ~8%/year.
Protection meets return
Balanced stays 45% invested when signals are cautious. Enough protection against the drawdown, enough participation in the recovery.
Structural cost: ~2.4%/year.
Nearly fully invested
Growth stays nearly fully invested in everyday conditions. Only during extreme weakness does Crash Guard step in, catching the recovery after market lows.
Structural cost: ~0.03%/year.
All signals visible
Observer shows all 16 signals (Favorable, Cautious, Neutral). Your performance is reported as Buy & Hold. You see the state and decide for yourself.
Pure market return.
Three mechanisms. One system.
Every strategy combines these three building blocks differently. The difference: when and how strongly they activate.
The exit threshold determines when the strategy reduces the position. The position size determines how much: from 0% (fully out) to 75% (nearly fully invested).
Detects extreme market stress and reduces immediately, before the regular signal reacts. First line of defense at the onset of a crash. Built into Defensive and Balanced.
At the bottom, Crash Guard holds the position at 100%. Panic lows have historically been the best re-entry points. It catches the recovery. Active in Balanced and Growth.
On average 57% less drawdown, validated over 12 years.
The strongest protection level. When signals switch to Cautious, Defensive fully reduces the position (0% invested). With the highest exit threshold (45%) it reacts earlier than any other strategy.
COVID crash, 2022 inflation crisis, Trump tariffs: the strongest protection in every tested extreme scenario. Price: ~8% forgone return per year.
- Full exit when Cautious (0% invested)
- Exit threshold at 45%, reacts earlier than other strategies
- Price of protection: ~8% forgone return per year in bull markets
What's left at the lowest point?
COVID crash 2020, median over 64 portfolios · avg. across the full validation: 57%
+€9,350 savedDrawdown reduction and annual forgone return
Median over 64 portfolios, 12 years
31% less drawdown at ~2.4% forgone return per year.
Better risk-adjusted return than Buy & Hold. 31% less drawdown at ~2.4% forgone return per year. The sweet spot. Balanced stays 45% invested when signals are cautious: enough protection against the drawdown, enough participation in the recovery. Crash Guard and Fast Exit are built in.
- 45% invested when Cautious, enough to catch the recovery
- Exit threshold at 38%, fewer false alarms
- Crash Guard + Fast Exit built in: protection at the start and recovery at the end
- 3-day cooling-off instead of weekly rebalancing
Stay fully invested. Practically free. Crash Guard for extreme events.
Growth stays nearly fully invested in everyday conditions. Only during extreme weakness does Crash Guard step in. 2% drawdown reduction at ~0.03% forgone return per year, practically free.
- Nearly fully invested, the strategy rarely intervenes in normal conditions
- Crash Guard built in, catches the recovery after market lows
- 0.03% forgone return vs. Buy & Hold, practically free
- 2% drawdown reduction during real crashes (COVID, 2022)
Beats B&H in 66% of portfolios with practically no forgone return.
Median over 64 portfolios, 12 years
0.03% forgone returnObserver: full transparency, no autopilot
Observer shows all 16 signals but nothing happens automatically. Your performance is reported as Buy & Hold. You get full signal transparency and decide for yourself what to do with it.
Why Observer exists:
Not everyone wants automatic position adjustments. Observer delivers full signal transparency without changing the strategy. You see the state, you decide what to do with it.
Every number is validated
Research rounds
Stocks & ETFs
Portfolios
Walk-forward
Tested period
Every number on this page comes from walk-forward-validated backtests: one time window is used for calibration, the next for testing (Leave-One-Year-Out). Every configuration holds up in every individual year. No cherry-picked periods, no overfitting to past data. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
All strategies compared
| Defensive | Balanced | Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg drawdown red. | 57% | 31% | 2% |
| Avg forgone return/year | ~8% | ~2.4% | ~0.03% |
| Sharpe (return/risk)Buy & Hold: 0.89 | 0.52 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Rebalancing | 3-day cooling-off | 3-day cooling-off | 3-day cooling-off |
| Fast Exit | ✓ | ✓ | |
| Crash Guard | ✓ | ✓ |
Fast Exit and Crash Guard are built into the respective strategies, no optional toggles.
Average across 64 portfolios, 12 walk-forward windows (2014–2025). Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
Not sure which strategy?
Balanced is the default setting. You can switch between all strategies at any time.
Beginners
The 3 strategies + Observer work out of the box. Tooltips explain every term directly in the tool, and the signal reference walks you through the methodology step by step. No prior knowledge needed.
Power users
Signal configuration: adjust EMA periods, thresholds, and weights. Backtest sandbox: test every variant on your own portfolio. Walk-forward analysis: see whether your adjustments hold up over 12 years.
Test your strategy on your portfolio
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